Chile: Back to the Future

By Maximiliano Véjares

Washington DC

Chile’s recent local elections, in which moderate, traditional parties staged a comeback, offer a promising sign of political stability. Following five years of uncertainty marked by a social uprising in 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic, and two unsuccessful attempts to rewrite the Pinochet-era constitution, the country appears to be approaching a turning point.

Historically recognized as a model of democratic transition and economic progress, Chile’s recent challenges have cast significant doubt on its democratic resilience. However, the recent election outcome suggests that the period of uncertainty may be drawing to a close.

The center-right Chile Vamos coalition demonstrated its strength by surpassing the far-right Republicanos in their competition for dominance in that sector. Simultaneously, the center-left Socialismo Democratico coalition increased its vote share vis-à-vis the more left-leaning Communist Party and Frente Amplio. Mayors, municipal and regional (states) councilmembers, and governors, are much more evenly distributed across the ideological spectrum than before the elections.

Chilean Democracy Undergoes Dramatic Shifts Since 2019

Since 2019, the country’s democracy has undergone dramatic shifts. That year, a widespread social uprising triggered the election of a constitutional assembly reflecting deep-seated demands for systemic change. In September 2022, however, the population decisively rejected a progressive constitutional draft, with 63% voting against it. Undeterred, political elites attempted a do-over, now with a reformed electoral system, hoping to elect a more balanced constitutional assembly. Despite these efforts, the strategy backfired. Republicanos secured a plurality of votes and the chance to veto decisions in the new assembly, resulting in a conservative draft. Ultimately, the latest proposal met the same fate as its predecessor, with 55% of Chileans rejecting the new constitutional project.

Given these rapid political transformations, last November’s local election results offer a promising sign of renewed stability for Chile. Voters appear to have moved beyond the climate of uncertainty, shifting away from supporting outsider candidates who promised sweeping economic and social restructuring and instead gravitating towards more moderate, centrist political alternatives.

Despite hurting citizens’ aspirations to rewrite the Pinochet-era constitution, the instability caused by years of institutional uncertainty is most likely over. Every significant coalition has agreed not to attempt new constitutional changes in the near future. The new political landscape indicates an emergent recalibration of Chile’s party system.

Despite the good news, some fundamental challenges remain. Political parties and Congress continue to suffer from extremely low public trust, with recent polling indicating that only 8% and 4% trust these institutions, respectively. Moreover, an electoral reform implemented in 2015 that replaced the archaic Pinochet-era binomial system incentivizes politicians to act as individual political entrepreneurs rather than committed party-builders.

The increasing personalization of politics has consequently made legislation and governance increasingly tricky. Recognizing this fragmentation, a cross-party group of senators has proposed a bill to raise the vote threshold required for an electoral list to enter Congress, with the explicit goal of reducing the number of parties in Congress. Improving the institutional design could help political elites enhance policymaking to face the country’s most pressing challenges: rising public safety concerns and a stagnating economy

Chile’s political stability is critical not only for its citizens but also for the global energy landscape. As a significant contributor to the energy transition, the country commands an extensive share of the world’s lithium and copper reserves and production. With the United States and China seeking to develop resilient supply chains and invest in renewable energy infrastructure, Chile is positioned to play a pivotal role in the emerging geopolitical dynamics of critical mineral production and clean energy development.

The Presidential Race Heats Up

Together with more centrist incumbents at the local level, two issues will lurk behind the presidential and legislative elections of November 2025: economic stagnation and escalating public safety concerns. Evelyn Matthei, a right-wing moderate and the daughter of Fernando Matthei—a former military junta member—is the clear frontrunner. A recent poll shows that 22% of citizens would support her if the election were held this week, positioning her ahead of all left-leaning presidential hopefuls. The poll also indicates that Matthei would defeat every contender in a potential runoff, including the far-right Kast. On the contrary, the poll suggests every left-leaning candidate would lose against Matthei in a runoff. In the case Kast made it to a second round, he could be defeated by left leaning former Chilean president Michelle Bachelet, should she have a change of heart and decide to run.

Matthei faces two far-right challengers: José Antonio Kast and Johannes Kaiser. In the 2021 election, Kast beat Chile Vamos but was ultimately defeated by Gabriel Boric in the runoff. Kaiser, a polarizing far-right politician, left the Republicanos party in 2023. Current polling indicates Kaiser’s candidacy is gaining traction, with 8% of voters expressing potential support—a trajectory that suggests growing political momentum.

It is unclear who the contenders on the left will be. Gabriel Boric’s government (2021-2025) is relatively unpopular, with an average approval rating of 30%. Such context makes it hard for many left-leaning political figures to dissociate from the government. Thus far, former president Michelle Bachelet is the only competitive candidate, although at this time she still loses against Matthei in the polls mentioned above. Recently, former President Bachelet indicated that she will not run for a third time.

Lately, the coalitional dynamics within Chile’s left have shifted rapidly. The once-powerful Socialismo Democrático has lost support after endorsing the 2019 wave of demonstrations which, according to research conducted in 2024 by CADEM, are now viewed with disapproval by a majority of respondents. Meanwhile, the more progressive Frente Amplio has emerged as the dominant force among left-leaning parties.

Looking ahead to the June 2025 primaries, two distinct scenarios could emerge if left-wing candidates gain momentum. Under Socialismo Democratico leadership, we would likely see a more market-oriented approach, leveraging their extensive governmental experience and networks of skilled technocrats. On the other hand, if a candidate from Frente Amplio or the communist party prevails, the presidential race would likely center on increasing state control over natural resources and expanding wealth redistribution programs.

Although primary elections are not mandatory, it has become common for large coalitions to nominate their presidential candidates through this mechanism.

Whatever happens next year, the institutional uncertainty stemming from the constitutional discussion has mostly dissipated. If political elites create a more balanced electoral system and find a way to jumpstart the economy, Chile may be back on track on the road to economic progress and democratic stability.

Photo Credit: Universidad de Chile.

Maximiliano Véjares holds a PhD. from Johns Hopkins and an MA from the University of Chicago. He is a senior research associate at Johns Hopkins University’s Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab and a nonresident fellow at American University in Washington, DC. His academic interests are the origins of political development, including democracy, state capacity, and the rule of law. Beyond His scholarly work, Maximiliano has broad professional experience in government and international organizations.