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The Politics of Illogicality: North Korea is Removed from Washington’s Terrorist List but Cuban Embargo Remains

In February 2008, longtime Cuban president Fidel Castro transferred power to his younger brother Raúl, sparking a worldwide dialogue regarding the implications of the first major transition of power seen on the island in almost five decades. Most would agree that Havana, in fact, has carried out a number of changes. However, the ultimate significance of these cumulative reforms and the prospect of a broadening of Cuban democracy are still being widely debated. Some, like the Bush administration, believe that the recent changes are cosmetic and do not signal a transition into a more representative, democratic government because of continued instances of repression and state control over the economy and the Cuban people. Others maintain that the overall combination of the numerous structural changes occurring on the island, as well as the changed social patterns, should be seen as a precursor to a democratic future. Still others believe that Raúl Castro is himself merely a transitional figure who is mainly preoccupied with maintaining stability, due to concerns that Fidel Castro’s death could destabilize a system that has revolved around him since its inception.

The Cuban Revolution awarded power to a charismatic leader who permeated every aspect of Cuban society during his 48-year rule. Fidel’s resignation has left Raúl with the inevitable yet difficult task of continuing a system based on fidelismo without Fidel. It is undeniable that Raúl’s primary concern has been the establishment of an effective succession mechanism to guarantee a peaceful and stable transition of power. After all, the 77-year old Raúl will not enjoy as long a presidency as his brother did. However, to overlook the value and prospects of the reforms implemented by Raúl would be a mistake of the highest order. If nothing else, the appearance and public persona of the president of Cuba has changed dramatically since Raúl Castro shed his guerrilla uniform in favor of a western, dark gray business suit. For a country defined by its guerilla birth and military rule, it is especially significant that the island’s new president, the decades-long head of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias, has decided to change his appearance in this way. Before speculating whether the new Cuban president will be a different kind of Castro or a continuation of the same old Fidel, it may be beneficial to enumerate the many changes being witnessed by Cuba since Raúl’s rise to power in July 2006.

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This analysis was prepared by COHA Research Associate Michelle Quiles.

The Politicization of MERCOSUR: With a Divided Past, Is There Hope for a United Future?

Today the leaders of Mercosur are convening in Tucumán, Argentina for their semi-annual conference and for the inauguration of Brazil’s Luis Inácio Lula da Silva as its pro-tempore president. San Miguel de Tucumán, the largest city in northwestern Argentina and the capital of the province of Tucumán, was the site of Argentine independence from Spain in 1816. Mercosur should take advantage of the historic significance of this site and use this meeting to redefine itself independently from other regional integration schemes and trade blocs. If Mercosur seeks to maintain the recognized international legitimacy it has worked so hard to achieve over the past seventeen years, it needs to clearly identify its goals for the future.

History of the Common Market of the South
In 1991, the Treaty of Asunción established the Mercado Común del Sur, commonly referred to as Mercosur. With this treaty, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay committed themselves to increasing regional integration and eliminating obstacles to internal trade. Modeled after the European Union (EU), the trade bloc is now one of the largest and most influential commercial trade zones in the world, and is responsible for more than three-fourths of the economic activity on the continent. While Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay are permanent members, Venezuela’s status as a full member is still pending. The Andean States of Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru, along with Chile, are associate members. The presidency of Mercosur rotates every six months and is currently held by Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. In the beginning, Mercosur successfully created trade-driven unity among its member countries. However, numerous challenges, both internal and external, have since threatened its efficacy as a bastion of regional integration and economic growth.

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This analysis was prepared by COHA Research Associate Kristin Bushby.

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U.S. Presidential Candidates’ Rhetoric on Latin America

Colombia’s President Uribe Goes Dangerously Ballistic

    • Colombian President in effect has terminated the hostage release program by resorting to bombs not diplomacy in resolving his dispute with FARC guerillas.
    • Speculation over the possible U.S. role in the affair and whether U.S. trainers, helicopters, satellite imaging, intelligence and smart bombs were supplied.

On Saturday, the Colombian air force attacked a FARC camp site in Ecuador, a mile from the Colombian border resulting in the death of Raul Reyes (Luis Edgar Devia Silva), the second in command of the FARC, and seventeen other members of his unit. Both Ecuador and Venezuela reacted with outrage, with Ecuador immediately recalling its ambassador (Venezuela previously had done so) and ordering their troops to their respective borders with Colombia in response to the air strike and subsequent incursion by Colombian helicopters ordered by President Alvaro Uribe into Ecuador.

What is particularly worrisome about this entire scenario is the strong possibility of U.S. involvement in the incident and what role, if any, Southcom had in planning, supplying and carrying out the operation. There are good grounds to speculate that the entire game plan seems to have been carried out at too sophisticated a level by a Colombian military which normally is dismissed as incompetent, corrupt, drug sodden and ill-deposed to risk dangers.

While there is no evidence to buttress such surmises, the U.S. role could have involved the supply of intelligence based on satellites and heat sensors, a supply of smart bombs and the seconding of some of the scores of U.S. trainers in the country to cooperate in carrying out the initiative. In addition, there could have been possible authorization of the use of Black Hawk helicopters provided under the auspices of Plan Colombia, the multi billion dollar U.S. military aid program which transformed Colombia into being the third largest recipient of such U.S. assistance in the world.

Caracas and Quito have called the attack “cowardly and cold” and have argued that Ecuadorian air and ground space were clearly violated and there was no justification for such foreign military action on Ecuadorian soil. Chávez also said that if such an attack had been duplicated on Venezuelan soil, Caracas would consider declaring war on Colombia.

Ecuador has withdrawn its ambassador to Colombia, expelled the Colombian ambassador in Quito, while Venezuela has ordered 10 battalions to the border for possible military action.

There is no question that Colombian President Alvaro Uribe has dangerously escalated the tension now mounting in the northern arc of South America. Uribe’s decision to take such violent action just at the time that the tempo of FARC’s release of some of the estimated 750 hostages it was holding was being stepped up, has to be seen as a very strange development when one considers that the Colombian President had previously sacked Chávez last November for his successful record in arranging the release of several hostages thus, there may be other matters on Uribe’s agenda rather than just hostage release. Uribe is also risking the $6 billion a year in bilateral trade between Venezuela and Colombia and he may be hoping that Chávez’s decision to send 10 battalions of troops to the Colombia-Venezuela border may be put to good use in convincing Congressional Democrats to give up their opposition to approving the bilateral free trade agreement that the Bush administration has signed with Bogota, due to Colombia’s stalwart fight against “terrorism.” The Democrats now oppose such passage because the Colombian security forces have a repellant reputation for gunning down the country’s labor leaders.

The question is how prudent was Uribe’s dangerously precipitous action. Without question, Colombia’s Darth Vader has ordered operations before that have violated the territorial boundaries of his neighbors, such as using Colombian intelligence forces to collaborate with Venezuelan mercenaries to penetrate that country’s territory to abduct the FARC`s Rodrigo Granda, who later was released after France’s Nicolas Sarkozy persuaded Uribe to let him go after Colombia’s tensions with Caracas continued to escalate.

The Audacity of Vagueness: Barack Obama and Latin America by COHA Senior Research Fellow Nikolas Kozloff

As the U.S. presidential campaign heats up, Barack Obama, the likely Democratic nominee, has not been very eager to comprehensively address Latin America as an issue. In recent years, the region has undergone a major tectonic shift towards the left, surely prompting many to wonder how the young Illinois Senator might deal with progressive change throughout the hemisphere were he elected to the White House.

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