The Caribbean

CubaPress Releases
COHA

In Cuba, Raúl Castro is Doing Things His Way

Do Reforms Signal Extensive Changes in Havana’s view of the World?
Economic and agricultural reforms in Raúl Castro’s Cuba, though dismissed by those whose ideology prevent them from countenancing any kind of positive change in Cuba, could represent a significant opening up of Cuban society. The cell phone ban—which had prevented Cubans from legally owning such devices or obtaining service for them—was lifted on the 28th of March. Three days later, the hotel ban that had prevented Cubans from visiting or staying in hotels designated for foreign tourists, was also relaxed.

According to Toronto’s The Globe and Mail, Cubans will now be permitted to purchase state-owned housing, and wage limits also have been lifted, allowing Cubans to earn as much as the market allows. It is hoped that this will boost productivity, and will also enable Cubans to buy more of the consumer goods that have now been made available by means of other recent reforms.

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CubaPress Releases
COHA

Cuba: Will Washington’s Blindness Continue to Prevent it from Registering the Fundamental Changes Now Taking Place in Havana?

Recent COHA print citations

–Graham for Colombian Trade deal
–Will U.S. Economic Woes Expose Latin America to New Turmoil?
–Espionage to Proceed Under Raul Castro, Sources Say

Changes being introduced by Raúl Castro are fundamental and probably irreversible. One of the most anticipated leadership transitions of this epoch—that of Fidel Castro in Cuba—has been underway for the better part of a year in the absence of political instability or the upheaval predicted, or hoped for, by American policymakers and exiles in Miami. While George Bush and Condelezza Rice continue to deny this reality, and the administration produces fanciful studies by self-serving ideologues rather than bona fide specialists, which one expert has aptly described as “American occupation plans” for the island, the Cuban people have indicated their strong support for the inevitable end of the “era of Fidel” and the beginnings of a decisive new phase in the Cuban revolution’s history.

As the Cuban Parliament convened on February 24 to chose a new Council of State—the nation’s supreme governing body responsible for selecting the President—the most influential Latin American political leader of the twentieth century, recovering from a life-threatening illness, has retired gracefully to a position of éminence grise and keeper of the flame. Castro’s brother Raúl already has made it clear that he does not want to be “President for Life” and is committed to transferring power to a younger generation.

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CubaMexicoPress Releases
COHA

Democratic Primaries: The Resurrection of NAFTA as a Cause Célèbre

• In spite of the at times deceptive salesmanship, NAFTA has never been a win-win situation.

• Bill Clinton’s legacy as the prime NAFTA pusher comes back to haunt Hillary.

• The contention that NAFTA will be heavily modified, if not dropped, is more “pie in the sky,” with the more likely political template, being that once victorious, either one of the Democratic primary contestants will be disinclined to roil the waters with a fight over the pact.

• Some comments on Cuban trade


Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton repeatedly tells the nation that she always has been wary of NAFTA, and would be prepared to suspend compliance with the trade agreement, if need be, should Canada and Mexico oppose reopening the pact to a new round of negotiations. Candidate Obama, while speaking in the same vein, has been less specific, if anything, than even Clinton in calling for the revision of NAFTA. If Obama is occasionally muddled on the free trade issue, he at least is not revising history when it comes to NAFTA, as has been the case with candidate Clinton regarding her own as well as her husband’s record on the subject. On a number of occasions in recent weeks, she has been insisting that she always has been against NAFTA, in spite of the record contradicting such claims. The embarrassing fact is that, over the years, on a number of occasions, she has spoken in support of the trade pact, stressing its importance to the American economy.

Regarding Cuba, Hillary Clinton has insisted that she would not be prepared to enter into discussions with Havana unless a number of pre-conditions were met, including Cuba’s adoption of an open market system. Her critics will attack her on this point, on the grounds that no nation has the right to mandate what economic system or trade policies another nation should embrace unless it has freely affiliated with such a proposal and is not violating its previously established pledges. Cuba has made no such commitment to U.S.-style free trade. In fact, throughout Latin America, there is a distinct counter-trend in the direction back to the region’s traditional economic model, which features a mixed economy composed of strong public and private sectors.

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HaitiPress Releases
COHA

Haiti: President Préval Seeks an Electoral Amendment

• Préval strives to strengthen country’s democratic institutions, but Aristide Factor still unresolved

• Another Presidential Term for Aristide?

One can understand why Haiti’s President René Préval is so tirelessly pressing for a constitutional amendment whereby an incumbent president could immediately run for reelection, rather than having to wait at least one term. But the new arrangement could be fraught with danger. Not all Latin American democratic institutions are sufficiently durable to withstand the buffeting emanating from strongmen with authoritarian aspirations.

A long presidency tends to provide such a strongman with the time and space to evolve a personalistic system in the spirit of 19th century continuismo that incorporates political powerhouse tactics, as well as pushing for vested interests. Democratic societies of uncertain virtue may be best served by a process that relies upon rotation in office and other buffering processes which discourage the sprouting of permanent roots and the special arrangements that guard against venality, which can be improved over time. Single-term presidency provides less time for self-serving accommodations to be made, thus discouraging graft and opportunities for other forms of corruption.

A year into his second term as Haiti’s president, René Préval, like so many of his regional counterparts, raised the issue of amending his country’s constitution in order to reinvent the traditional term limits concerning the chief executive. The issue arises against a background of human rights violations, continuing gang violence in Haiti’s urban areas, a poorly trained and equipped national police force, and concerns about the effectiveness of foreign troops supposedly bringing order to the country.

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