WRH Volume 36 Issue 16

In this bizarre U.S. presidential election cycle, few issues have defied conventional wisdom quite like trade policy. The loss of manufacturing jobs, a growing trade deficit, and rising income inequality have led parties and individuals to reconsider their traditional stance on free trade.

The current debate focuses on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a multilateral trade deal signed last February by 12 Pacific Rim countries. Before it can take effect, the agreement must navigate domestic ratification processes in each member state.

In the United States, TPP’s fiercest opponent is Donald Trump, the candidate of the historically pro-free trade Republican Party. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party’s nominee, Hillary Clinton, also rejects the agreement, reversing her previous stance as Secretary of State. Despite criticism from both major candidates, sitting President Barack Obama is leading a last ditch effort to push through the TPP before the end of his second term.

On September 5, the Israeli embassy in Asunción, Paraguay held its official reopening ceremony after fourteen years of inactivity due to budget constraints. Symbolic in nature, the reemergence of the new embassy represents the ongoing counterterrorism partnership between the two countries. Although Paraguay is a seemingly unlikely ally of Israel in the global war on terrorism, because of its record of political instability, the landlocked South American country offers virtually unparalleled access to the Tri-Border Area (TBA), the junction of Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina. Due to the region’s history of lawlessness and illicit smuggling, Israel, as well as the United States, has claimed various Islamic extremist groups have established a presence in the TBA, in particularly Hezbollah. Although these claims remain sketchy and unconfirmed, Paraguay is still geo-strategically important to the West, especially after the 1994 AMIA (Argentine Israelite Mutual Association) bombings in Buenos Aires, which resulting in the Argentinian government formally accusing the Iranian government of coordinating the deadly attack in 2006. From the Israeli perspective, the corrupt, obstructionist government of Paraguay is very appealing because it ensures little bureaucratic impedance to counterterrorism operations in the country. On the other hand, from the Paraguayan outlook, this alliance provides the country with an opportunity to redeem itself, following its troubling “constitutional coup” in 2012, in which former President Fernando Lugo was controversially impeached by the Congress of Paraguay.

In June, oil giant ExxonMobil announced the discovery of a new source of offshore oil near Guyana estimated to hold between 800 million and 1.4 billion gallons. If the estimate is correct, the company could start to process 100,000 barrels of crude oil per day after the necessary infrastructure is developed and installed. In June, oil giant ExxonMobil announced the discovery of a new source of offshore oil near Guyana estimated to hold between 800 million and 1.4 billion gallons. If the estimate is correct, the company could start to process 100,000 oil is developed and installed. It is likely that this development would be completed by 2020, which coincides with Guyana’s next presidential election.

The extraction, processing, and export of oil could have a significant impact on the Guyanese economy. Although Guyanese workers will not exclusively staff the oil operations, ExxonMobil has set a target that between 75 and 95 percent of workers on the oil rigs should be Guyanese. The Minister of State, Joseph Harmon, has also emphasized the need for job training programs to improve the skills and depth of involvement of Guyanese workers in post-extraction processing industries. Most importantly, the government of Guyana will retain approximately half of the estimated revenues from the sale of oil, which could provide a much-needed boost for this small and traditionally poor South American country.