Morales Prepares to Win Bolivia’s Sunday Referendum

• International community will not accept legality of breakaway eastern part of the country, irrespective of the outcome of the referendum
• The eastern part of the country, acting on its own, could conceivably open up land under its jurisdiction to drug trafficking, money laundering, and the threat of terrorism
• Santa Cruz-led bloc presumably embraces the arrogant thesis that all of the natural resources found underneath its surfaces fall under the local jurisdiction of anti-government prefects, rather than belonging to the entire nation

Violent riots broke out in the gas-rich town of Tarija on August 5 causing the cancellation of a scheduled meeting between the Argentine, Venezuelan and Bolivian heads of state. The riots began early Tuesday between opposition groups and police, forcing security officers to tear gas crowds that gathered at the Tarija airport, where leaders were expected to meet. The presidents were to discuss several major energy agreements, among them a $450m loan from Argentina to Bolivia for the construction of a petrol plant, and the installation of a petro-chemical facility by a team Venezuelan engineers.

Protests also erupted near Bolivia’s largest tin mine, Huanuni. There, more opposition groups belonging to Bolivia’s largest labor union, Central Obrera Boliviana (COB), clashed with police, leaving two dead and at least thirty injured. The protests were aimed at Morales’ push to nationalize major energy sectors, as well as the aforementioned summit that could further consolidate Morales’ power if he wins the referendum. As local conservative opposition leader, Reynaldo Bayard, viewed the meeting, “[The presidents] say they are going to sign an energy agreement, but it’s a political show in support of Morales.”

The public protests demonstrate the escalation of opposition demands for regional autonomy from the central government, as represented by Morales. With a recall vote set to take place on Sunday (which Morales is expected to win), the battle between the president and regional governors appears irreconcilable. The dissident states could face criminal charges if they continue to reject Morales’ plans for a more unified and integrated Bolivia. As the president prepares to win Sunday’s recall vote, he confronts the task of settling the conflict with the regional prefects who will most likely either win their own local votes, thus ensuring their continued tenure, or later refute the referendum and continue staging boycotts in favor of complete autonomy. Any attempt by the prefects to implement self-proclaimed regional autonomy from the central government would be an empty gesture. The likelihood of such sub-divisions being recognized by the international community as an independent state and being granted access to the global economy is incredibly slim. Without the ability to trade, the rogue states’ bid for survival is bound to fail. Additionally, any attacks launched by those states, which could fall prey to terrorism, money laundering, and drug trafficking, would pose too great a threat to parts of the country still held by Morales. In this case, the embattled president would have to turn to the military to preserve the nation’s unity and the situation would most likely deteriorate rapidly.

With the recall vote only days away, the protests signal a much larger struggle between the European cultured states in the east and the largely indigenous populations found on the plateaus of the high Andes. Morales’ structural changes within the country, most notably the proposed constitution that would enhance his power to pursue the strengthening of indigenous rights, more equitable oil revenue divisions and land reform, drive the tension between the east and west.

It remains to be seen if Morales’ current push for legitimacy with regionally-funded development plans will result in a setback to him by the self-absorbed oil-rich regions. On the other hand, the vote could also show that the Bolivian people approve of Morales and legitimize his strides toward a more egalitarian Bolivia. These plans, if thwarted, would comprise a blow to the adamant position subscribed to by regional prefects who maintain the selfish view that the benefits of national resources belong more to the locality in which they are found than to the country as a whole.